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Text File | 1995-01-04 | 17.0 KB | 273 lines | [TEXT/Rich]

MERLIN Hurricane Tracking Tool - version 1.7a (EGA or better color monitor required!) INTRODUCTION - MERLIN is an easy-to-use hurricane/tropical storm tracking tool that provides the user with current information about the selected storm, in an easy to understand text report and five tracking maps. MERLIN Advisories contain information that is built from input by the user, great circle calculations, RatIo Tracking Algorithm (RITA) mathematical modeling, and neural network decisions based on a trained network (artificial intelligence). MERLIN Advisories are viewed on-screen with an option to print a MERLIN Report. MERLIN's Review mode, allows you to page backward and forward thru previous MERLIN Advisories. What-If scenarios are quickly generated by choosing an alternate tracking location from a pop-up menu. Historical information can be generated on-screen in the form of a MERLIN History with storm statistics automatically calculated. MERLIN's philosophy is that you should concentrate more on where the storm could go, than on where it has been. A 12 HOUR PROJECTION OF TREND is automatically calculated every- time you update the MERLIN Advisory. MERLIN can also display the National Hurricane Center 12 - 72 Hour Forecast/Outlook. The registered version of MERLIN will plot the selected storm's wind field on MERLIN's tracking maps, if that information is entered. HOW TO SET-UP MERLIN - MERLIN assumes you have a basic understanding of DOS commands - MD, COPY etc. Create a directory on the hard drive of your computer (typically drive C), named MERLIN, and copy all the files on the distribution diskette on to that directory. Type MERLIN and press <Enter> and the program will begin. If you want the program to continue after the opening screen, use MERLIN /T3, where the number three represents a three second delay and then MERLIN continues on. You can use any value you desire. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MENU SELECTIONS - A brief statement on MERLIN menu selections are below: What if... This allows you to quickly change tracking locations and view the MERLIN advisory from a different perspective. There are over 100 locations with the registered version of MERLIN, and your own city's location is added to the menu before shipping the registered disk. The tracking locations consist of most of the "official" locations used by the National Hurricane Center for watch/warning locations and also landfall possibility sites. These locations range from Brownsville, TX to Portland, ME and also include Hamilton, Bermuda. Tracking locations can be added, deleted, or modified by using any ASCII text editor on the MERLIN.DAT file. You need to know the latitude, longitude and city/state (21 characters or less on city/state). ALWAYS make a copy of the MERLIN.DAT file BEFORE you edit it. Then, if something goes wrong you'll still have the original, un-edited file. History... With the history option you can view the complete set of storm readings you have entered, along with the direction and forward speed of the storm calculated automatically by MERLIN. Five statistics of the selected storm's forward speed, maximum winds and barometric pressure are now auto- matically calculated (beginning with the second reading and thereafter) and displayed within the MERLIN History. The values are re-calculated each time you do a storm update. Statistics calculated are the average, median, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values based on the entire storm from beginning to the most current reading. Comparisons can be made of the storm's statistics and the most recent storm data, revealing relationships of what the storm is "currently doing" relative to the historical data. When the number of entries exceed the amount that can be viewed on one screen, you can easily use the up and down arrow, PgUp/PgDn, or Home/End keys to see all of the history. Pressing the <Esc> key returns you to the main MERLIN screen. Print... This lets you print the MERLIN Report, MERLIN History, or both reports to your attached printer. Update... Choose this to update MERLIN with additional readings (75 max), that you get on the current storm. You should get AT LEAST ONE SET OF READINGS FOR EACH 24 HOUR PERIOD, although more frequent updates are better. The following information is REQUIRED for MERLIN to generate correct advisories: storm latitude, storm longitude, date of reading, time of reading (24 hour format), and maximum winds (mph). You have the option to include the storm's barometric pressure (in inches), and I recommend you include it if available. All this information is easily obtained from a number of sources during a hurricane or tropical storm period. Examples of sources include local radio, television, The Weather Channel (cable), and broadcasts from the National Weather Service. The NWS provides hourly updates to their broadcasts, with readings of storms taken typically twice a day, and four times a day when a storm threatens the U. S. coastline. One of the very best sources of information is the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Marine Advisory and is REQUIRED to provide tracking of NHC forecasts/outlooks on MERLIN's tracking maps. See ALT+[U]date below. The Update option is where any error you are likely to encounter is created. An example would be if you attempt to enter your latitude and longitude in reverse order you may see unusual results. The update information is kept in an ASCII text file called "STORMNAME.'YR". If you make a mistake in your data entry you will need to access 'unDo' from MERLIN's menu. Undo will erase the last update and put you back to where you were before you made the bad entry. If MERLIN ever "crashes" with a "divide by zero" error, the "STORMNAME.'YR" has become corrupted and the last line will have to be removed with any ASCII text editor. The program should then run OK . ALT+[U]pdate... This allows you to enter forecast/outlook positions determined by the National Hurricane Center, at Coral Gables, Florida. These positions are found on the National Hurricane Center Marine Advisory. Look for the three "forecast valid" areas on the report. Below these will be two "outlook valid" areas. Together these five sets of positions represent the NHC's view on where the storm will be in the next 12, 24, 36, 48 and 72 hours. The report notes that the 48 and 72 hour outlook are to be used for guidance only. Remember, the further away you move outward with the forecast, the less confidence you can have in it. The first forecast on the report is the 12 hour forecast and the last outlook on the report represents the 72 hour outlook. NHC Marine Advisories are available from various sources. Contact your local National Weather Service office for sources. NHC Forecast/Outlook positions will overide the default MERLIN 12 HOUR PROJECTION OF TREND. The NHC positions will automatically clear when you leave MERLIN, load a new storm or do an update on the current storm. You can also manually clear the NHC positions by "popping-up" the screen and entering "0's" in all the fields. NEW: Partial sets of NHC information can now be entered. Note: the NHC Update screen has forecast/outlook hours followed by numbers in parentheses - 12 (9), 24 (21), 36 (33), 48 (45) and 72 (69). These numbers represent the ACTUAL hours in the future the forecast is, based on the storm's location and conditions 3 hours before the time of the report. So what MERLIN shows as the 12 hour NHC Forecast is actually 9 hours away; the 24 hour NHC Forecast is actually 21 hours away; etc. Wind field information may be entered following the NHC Forecasts/Outlooks. Typically this will be how far the most distant Tropical Storm force winds extend (in miles) from the center of the selected storm. This information is automatically added to the MERLIN Advisory. The registered version of MERLIN also graphically draws a wind field circle on MERLIN's tracking maps (except Atlantic map). This gives a visual indication of the "edge" of the storm, relative to your tracking location. Storm... This option allows you to easily load another storm into MERLIN that was created by you earlier. Do not ever erase the CARLA.'61 file because it is needed by MERLIN to rebuild your configuration file. New... Choose this whenever you are ready to create a new storm for MERLIN to keep track of. Maps... A "pop-up" menu allows the selection of five different tracking maps, providing the user with a graphical representation of the current storm. Available maps are the original MERLIN map (general view), Gulf of Mexico, East coast (USA), Caribbean view (new map!) and finally a "zoomed-out", Atlantic view. A grid of longitude/latitude markings is overlaid on the base map and then the current storm is plotted across the map based on that storm's readings. The storm track is in color, and is represented by the following: * Bright Blue = Wave/Depression * Bright Yellow = Tropical Storm * Bright Red = Hurricane * Bright Green = Wind Field (if data is entered) A fifth color, bright white OR bright white/red is used to draw a final line at the end of the storm track. This line represents MERLIN'S 12 HOUR PROJECTION OF TREND (white), or optionally the National Hurricane Center's 12-72 hour forecast/outlook (white/red), depending on whether you entered NHC positions into MERLIN usingAlt+[U]pdate. The white portion of the white/red line represents the NHC Forecasts and the red portion represents the NHC Outlooks. NOTE: Press ALT+1 to PRINT the map to your IBM/Epson dot-matrix printer on LPT1, or ALT+2 to print the tracking map to a LaserJet printer connected to LPT1. Info... This selection displays MERLIN.DOC to the screen while within MERLIN. Time... There are six time zones that you can use with MERLIN and you should choose the one that is current for your area. (CDT, CST, EDT, EST, AST, and GMT). All MERLIN storm files are stored in GMT, or universal time on your PC, regardless of your choice. Color... You can choose the color scheme of MERLIN with this option. "pRinter..." There are two printer selections available. If your printer can handle the extended character set, choose it, if not, choose the "do not use extended character set" option. Any printer should print with this option. unDo... This allows you to delete the latest MERLIN Advisory if you have entered incorrect information into the Update storm screen and told MERLIN that everything was OK when it wasn't. PgUp/PgDn... Pressing PgUp/PgDn places the MERLIN Advisory into Review mode. This mode allows you to view any MERLIN Advisory, from the current advisory, backwards to MERLIN Advisory #1. You can also page forward until you reach the current advisory. Pressing the "Esc" key at any time returns you to the current advisory and takes you out of Review mode. Items that are hi-lited on the MERLIN menu are the only active selections available to you in Review mode. Please note that the History menu selection gives you the complete history of the storm whether you are in Current or Review mode. If the Review mode indicator is not "ON", you are in Current mode. Loop... This menu choice places MERLIN in an "endless" loop that will display the MERLIN tracking map, whatever information is in the ASCII text file named MERLIN.TXT and the MERLIN Advisory screen. Each of these items are displayed for one minute and then the cycle begins again. When the Loop mode indicator is "ON", you are in that mode. Pressing the Esc key from the MERLIN Advisory screen will return you to Current mode. If MERLIN.TXT does not exist, MERLIN will alternate between the tracking map and the advisory screen. MERLIN automatically "centers" each line of information within MERLIN.TXT so each line needs to be left-justified for proper appearance. Use the "Esc" key to exit MERLIN and return to DOS. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE MERLIN ADVISORY - There are three items on the advisory itself to take note of: UPDATE, MERLIN'S OUTLOOK, and 12 HOUR PROJECTION. UPDATE - There are many calculations that take place here that provide basic information on the current storm. Sometimes the information will be brief, especially with your first reading. More information becomes available with your second reading, because more calculations can then be made. Note how the "direct path statement" can change dramatically from the previous reading. This is because the arrival of the storm's center is based on the CURRENT rate of travel of the storm in mph. MERLIN'S OUTLOOK - This output comes into the advisory beginning with the second reading and thereafter. MERLIN attempts to "look ahead" and determine what level the intensity of the storm will be in several hours. The decision is made by MERLIN after passing current information on the storm through a neural network "trained" on previous storms. This technique of artificial intelligence looks for patterns in the current storm that match patterns determined by the neural network. Look for the highest number and this is the best choice based on the network determination. The range of the output is from .00 to .99. There may be times when two of the outputs are close and you should take this into account when you interpret the result. The three outputs do not add up to 100 because they are independent of each other. The network calculates the output for EACH node based on the current pattern of the storm. 12 HOUR PROJECTION OF TREND - A projection of future location of the storm is made beginning with the second reading and thereafter. A mathematical model (RITA - RatIo Tracking Algorithm), is used to determine this projection. The latitude and longitude generated by MERLIN, is where the storm would be in twelve hours based on the most recent trend of the storm. RITA is a model developed by T. M. Parker, and is used exclusively by the MERLIN Hurricane Tracking Tool. Do NOT expect the storm to be located EXACTLY at the 12 hour projection. IF the storm continues on its current trend, it should be in the GENERAL area of the projection calculated by MERLIN. Everyone should be aware that hurricanes and tropical storms can rapidly change direction and forward speed at a moment's notice. On the printed MERLIN Report, besides the MERLIN advisory, there is a mini-history of the current storm. The ten most current entries and calculations on the storm are always on the report. A complete history report is available for printing by using the Print option from the menu. ****************************************************************************** CAUTION!! - No person or computer program, not even MERLIN, can predict the future. ALWAYS pay close attention to the progress of an approaching storm, and heed the warnings of the local authorities in your area. If they say to evacuate, DO IT! ****************************************************************************** You can order MERLIN directly from Public (software) Library (PsL) with your MC, VISA, AMEX, or DISCOVER card by calling 800-242-4PsL (from overseas or 713 area: 713-524-6394), or FAX a print-out of the ORDER.FRM file to 713-524-6398 or CompuServe at 71355,470. These numbers are for ordering only. T. M. Parker can NOT be reached at the above numbers. To contact T. M. Parker for non-credit card orders, information about dealer pricing, volume discounts, site licensing, status of product shipment, the latest version number or for technical information, write: T. M. Parker P. O. Box 1431 La Porte, TX 77572 Licensing and Distribution Agreement ------------------------------------ This program is Copyright (C) 1991, 1995 T. M. Parker, All rights reserved. The software you are purchasing is NOT a shareware program; there is no fee associated with the shareware version, and it may be used for a 30 day period, and distributed freely. THIS SOFTWARE IS DISTRIBUTED AS IS; THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES OR GUARANTEES THAT IT WILL SUIT YOUR NEEDS AND T. M. PARKER SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE IN ANY WAY FOR YOUR USAGE OF THIS PROGRAM NOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES THAT MAY ARISE FROM THAT USAGE.